James C. Smith of Reflexive Entertainment has an interesting chart up on his casual game data site game-sales-charts.com:
Churn on the RealArcade Top 10 List
The chart shows the number of different games that have appeared on RealArcade's Top 10 list in each quarter since the 4th quarter of 2003. In that quarter, 23 different games appeared on the weekly top 10 list (the minimum number would be 10 if all the same games were on the list for the entire quarter - the maximum would be 130 if every game were different every week).
In the most recently completed quarter, the 1st quarter of 2006, there were 40 different games. The chart shows how the number of different games on the list has steadily gone up from 23 to 40.
This means that each game spends less time in the top 10 list and therefore spends less time at its full earnings on the portal. It shows dramatically how less and less profitable the portals are becoming for the developers of the games. Each quarter even the hit games have less and less time to make their money before they are kicked out by the portal.
Again, it just reinforces my belief that, unless you get very lucky and get a big hit, a game developer is much better off pursuing a direct sales strategy rather than a portal sales strategy. Of course, you can use portal sales as an additional distribution method, but if you make all of your money that way this data must really make you wonder how long the portals are going to be a viable way for developers to make money.
I don't have anything against the portals - I have had a game on a portal for 6 years (and it still sells - it's not significant compared to my direct sales, but over the years the cumulative total is nothing to sneeze at). But I've never believed that they are permanent or will always be a major part of the market.
I've just seen too many fads come and go.
Recently I've been thinking that my primary customers and the portal customers may be rather different. Although demographically they are similar (largely older, more women), my customers seem to prefer more challenging games than the portal customers seem to (although I think it may be the portals are underestimating their customers and dumbing down their games too much).
My customers seem to be "hardcore casual". While of course there are many very easy games among the 640 games in Pretty Good Solitaire, the hardcore customers tend to prefer the harder, more challenging ones (such as FreeCell, which although it can almost always be one presents a challenge in many cases). The portal market solitaire games, though, are exclusively very easy, very simple games.
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